Model history
Every published version of the forecast, newest first. Each one is reproducible from its recorded evidence snapshot, configuration, code commit and random seed. Subscribe by RSS.
| Version | Published | Median (P50) | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| #4 | 2026-08-11 | Not reached within horizon | First published version |
Version #4 — 2026-08-11
First published version — no previous version to compare against.
This is a probabilistic model of CRQC capability based on public evidence. Its primary result is a forecast interval built from the percentiles the evidence can resolve. A percentile that does not cross within the model’s horizon is reported as undefined, never estimated, together with the share of scenarios that do not cross. The model is recalculated weekly and does not claim day-level or second-level certainty.