Model version #4
Model version #4 · published 2026-08-11First published version — no previous version to compare against.
| P10 (10% of futures cross by) | P50 (median estimate) | P90 (90% of futures cross by) |
|---|---|---|
| 2059-10-29 | Median unresolved | Not defined |
The bar ends at the modelled horizon, not at a P90. Percentiles shown as “not defined” fall in the censored tail: too many simulated scenarios never reach a crossing for those percentiles to be estimated, so no upper bound is drawn rather than one being placed at the horizon.
P10 (10% of futures cross by): 10% by 2059-10-29
Each dashed rule marks the date a percentile falls on, and the dot on it shows how far the plotted curve has risen by that date. The two differ on purpose: percentiles are computed at full sample resolution, while the curve only steps at year-ends, so the curve reads the previous year-end's level on that date. Read each percentile's own level from the label or this legend, not from where its rule meets the curve.
72.31% of simulated scenarios do not reach a crossing at all within the modelled horizon, which ends in 2086. The curve therefore stops below 100% by design; the remainder is not an omission and is not extrapolated.
Cumulative crossing probability by year-end, NIST P-256 — the same values plotted above.
- 2026
- 0.00
- 2027
- 0.00
- 2028
- 0.00
- 2029
- 0.00
- 2030
- 0.00
- 2031
- 0.00
- 2032
- 0.00
- 2033
- 0.00
- 2034
- 0.00
- 2035
- 0.00
- 2036
- 0.00
- 2037
- 0.01
- 2038
- 0.01
- 2039
- 0.01
- 2040
- 0.01
- 2041
- 0.02
- 2042
- 0.02
- 2043
- 0.02
- 2044
- 0.03
- 2045
- 0.03
- 2046
- 0.03
- 2047
- 0.04
- 2048
- 0.04
- 2049
- 0.05
- 2050
- 0.05
- 2051
- 0.06
- 2052
- 0.06
- 2053
- 0.07
- 2054
- 0.07
- 2055
- 0.08
- 2056
- 0.08
- 2057
- 0.09
- 2058
- 0.09
- 2059
- 0.10
- 2060
- 0.11
- 2061
- 0.11
- 2062
- 0.12
- 2063
- 0.13
- 2064
- 0.13
- 2065
- 0.14
- 2066
- 0.15
- 2067
- 0.15
- 2068
- 0.16
- 2069
- 0.17
- 2070
- 0.17
- 2071
- 0.18
- 2072
- 0.19
- 2073
- 0.20
- 2074
- 0.20
- 2075
- 0.21
- 2076
- 0.22
- 2077
- 0.22
- 2078
- 0.23
- 2079
- 0.24
- 2080
- 0.24
- 2081
- 0.25
- 2082
- 0.26
- 2083
- 0.26
- 2084
- 0.27
- 2085
- 0.28
- 2086
- 0.28
P10
What moved
This is the first published version, so there is nothing to compare it against.
| Percentile | This version | Previous published | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P10 | 2059-10-29 | — | — |
| P50 | Not reached within horizon | — | — |
| P90 | Not reached within horizon | — | — |
Evidence in this version
This version was computed from a frozen snapshot of 2 reviewed evidence records.
Entered the model (2)
- Computing with many encoded logical qubits beyond break-even — Logical qubits , 2026-02-25
- Logical Computation Demonstrated with a Neutral Atom Quantum Processor — Logical qubits , 2024-11-18
Configuration and reproducibility
| Model version | v1 |
|---|---|
| Simulation configuration | v1 |
| Evidence snapshot | v1 (2 records) |
| Scenario count | 2000000 |
| Random seed | 20260809 |
| Code commit | c4354dd325a3c5e3bc3d4cf7807fd4b6664c8a1e |
| Container image | sha256:1c918f10a7aae12deb642b9888fb9b8ec353ba5572e410011305af4e264e1965 |
Validation
✓ Passed Validated 2026-08-10. 19 checks ran.
Approved and published by the same person. This project has one operator, so the two independent judgements a separation of duties asks for are, here, one.
Publication digest: 42fd59acd21209032efe68cb3a18709c369edbc0a09cf8d48dc1784c990aaa49 — a
SHA-256 digest of the validated inputs, not a cryptographic signature by a key
holder.
Validation checks reproducibility and internal consistency. It does not check whether the forecast is correct — see the methodology.
Publication history
| When | Action | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 13:25 UTC | Published | Approved and published by the same person. This project has one operator, so the two judgements separation of duties asks for are one judgement. |
This is a probabilistic model of CRQC capability based on public evidence. Its primary result is a forecast interval built from the percentiles the evidence can resolve. A percentile that does not cross within the model’s horizon is reported as undefined, never estimated, together with the share of scenarios that do not cross. The model is recalculated weekly and does not claim day-level or second-level certainty.